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2011-05-11 Optical transceiver market rockets to $1.2B in 2010, forecast to hit $2.8B by 2015…
BOSTON, Massachusetts, May 11, 2011—Market research firm Infonetics Research today released excerpts from its “10G/40G/100G Optical Transceivers Market Size and Forecast”, the industry’s most detailed report tracking 10 Gigabit, 40 Gigabit, and nascent 100 Gigabit optical transceivers and transponders.
The report, which tracks transceivers and transponders sold into the optical transport, enterprise, and carrier routing and switching markets, is the first to use end-market projections of carrier preferences and equipment shipments to drive component forecasts, including shipments of 40G and 100G ports designed and manufactured in-house by network equipment manufacturers (NEMs), such as Ciena and Huawei.
ANALYST NOTE
“For dominant vendors with good cost controls and broad product lines, the 10G transceiver market is a good place to be, a sharp contrast to the reality of the previous 10 years. Unfortunately for some component suppliers, NEMs are supplying an increasing share of 40G and 100G long reach ports, leaving optical module manufacturers to fight for a diminishing share of this accelerating market. There will be minimal market for many suppliers of 40/100G transponders, until the NEMs decide to outsource supply, most likely not until 2013 or later,” expects Andrew Schmitt, directing analyst for optical at Infonetics Research.
OPTICAL TRANSCEIVER MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
  • The 10G, 40G, and 100G transceiver and transponder market is forecast by Infonetics Research to grow to $2.8 billion worldwide by 2015
  • Overall 10G optical transceiver/transponder revenue jumped about 160% in 2010, but 10G growth will slow as the market shifts to more compact form factors with less electronics (SFP+ and XFP) and lower ASPs
  • 10G WDM module shipments more than doubled year over year, but we expect growth to be more in-line with end-equipment market growth in 2011
  • 10G SFP+ module shipments tripled in 2010 on the strength of 10GbE and 8G FC deployment
  • Shipments of long reach 40G optics made by NEMs exploded in 2010, thanks mainly to Huawei and Ciena
  • 2013 will be the pivotal year for the 100G market, when price points will be reached that drive widespread adoption; 100GBase-LR4 pricing is expected to rapidly drop as multiple component vendors are entering the landscape
REPORT SYNOPSIS
Infonetics’ 10G/40G/100G Optical Transceivers report provides in-depth analysis, market size, and forecasts through 2015 for manufacturer revenue and units shipped. The report analyzes the market by module, reach, wavelength, and form factor, tracking the following long and short/intermediate reach optical transceivers and transponders:
  • 10G modules by tunable, WDM (fixed C-band), 1550nm, 1310nm, and 850nm wavelengths, split by form-factor: 300 pin, XFP, SFP+, NEM-developed, and other (X2, XENPAK, etc.)
  • 40G modules by tunable, short reach, intermediate reach, and long reach wavelengths: DPSK, DQPSK, PM-QPSK, opto duo-binary (ODB) and other, NEM-developed Coherent, NEM-developed Non-Coherent, 40GBase-FR, 40GBase-LR4, and 40GBase-SR4
  • 100G modules by tunable, short and intermediate reach, and long reach: 100G DWDM, 100G DWDM NEM-developed, 100GBase-LR4 (including 10x10 MSA), and 100GBase-SR10
Unit volume forecasts are based on Infonetics’ 10G/40G/100G ports forecast, aggregating trends from a wide range of enterprise, optical transport, and carrier routing and switching equipment.